PS 474G, Political Psychology
Lecture Outline: Rational Choice & Psychological Models of Decision-Making
(Anthony Downs, An Economic Theory of Democracy; Rick Lau, “Models of Decision-Making”)
I.
The Classic Economic
Rational Choice Approach to Decision-Making
A.
Choice involves deciding between two or more alternative
actions that are associated with beliefs about their outcomes
that are associated with a certain value to the decision-maker.
B.
Definition
of Rationality
1.
Rational
behavior is purposive behavior directed toward the attainment of goals.
2.
To be
rational, one selects the alternative course of action (means) which most
efficiently reach one's goals (ends). That is, one selects the action with the
greatest expected value.
3.
In general,
rationality is defined more by the selection of means than the final
ends. However, to avoid the tautology that every action is rational
because it was directed toward some (unknown) goal, the analyst must place some
restriction on the particular goals that he or she is willing to consider to be
rational. E.g., political, economic goals.
4.
Requires a
high estimation of the average individual's capacity for reason, choice,
cognition, and conscious calculations.
C.
The Form of
Rational Choice Theories
a)
Hypothetical-deductive
theories: the analyst begins by making a few simplifying, "as if"
assumptions about how the world works and then deduces an actor's behavior in a
given situation.
b)
The end of
science is prediction, rather than explanation.
c)
Theories are
tested by the accuracy of their predictions rather than the validity of their
assumptions.
d)
Preference
for producing "elegant models of irrelevant universes" vs. "data
dredging," inductive methods. Parsimony vs. complexity.
D.
Application
to Abstention (Turnout) in Elections
1.
Citizens
vote if PB > C, where:
a)
P =
probability that a citizen's vote will affect the outcome of the election
b)
B = the
extent to which the individual feels that one party (candidate) will benefit him
or her more than the other party (i.e., "expected party
differential").
c)
C = costs
associated with voting.
d)
D?
e)
Other
formulations?
2.
How accurate
are the predictions of the model? The “paradox that ate rational choice
theory”?
E.
Application
to Acquisition of Information
1.
Rational
ignorance
F.
Application
to Determinants of the Vote Choice
1.
Downs as a
more formal treatment of Representative democratic theory
2.
What are the
goals/means of candidates and of voters?
3.
What are the
predictions of the model?
4.
Downs’ explanations
of why the predictions of the baseline model do not hold & implications for
rationality of ordinary citizens: rational candidates create irrational voters.
G.
Application
to Citizen's Decision to Join a Political Group (not covered)
1.
(Mancur Olson, The Logic of Collective Action)
2.
Assumptions
a)
Political
groups are in the business of providing members with collective goods (i.e.,
once it is applied, it is available to all members of the group, regardless of
whether they contributed or not).
b)
Individuals
are rational, perfectly informed, and motivated by economic gain.
c)
The marginal
costs (MC) of providing the good are positive and increasing, while the
marginal benefits (MB) of obtaining the good are positive and decreasing (i.e.,
benefits decrease for each additional increment of the good).
d)
Individuals
will contribute to the group up to the point where the marginal costs (MC) of
providing the good are equal to the marginal benefits (MB) they derive.
3.
Predictions
a)
The
"exploitation of the great by the small" (i.e., large members end up
contributing the bulk of the good).
b)
As the
proportion of small members increases, so does the likelihood that none of the
collective good will be provided (i.e., the larger the potential group, the
less effective it will be).
4.
How well do
these predictions match reality?
II.
Lau’s
Discussion of Behavioral Decision Theory (Psychologist Herbert Simon)
A.
Problems
with Classic Economic Rational Choice Approach to Decision-Making
1.
Ideally,
“homo economicus” voters must seek out all relevant
information on all issues and all candidates, where each candidate proposal is
an alternative associated with a range of outcomes and probabilities.
2.
Constraints
in ability and motivation.
3.
Is the fact
that so many people choose alternatives where the costs outweigh the benefits
evidence that: a) such behavior is somehow rational, b) many people are
irrational, or c) the rational choice perspective is somehow flawed? If so,
should it be used as a normative ideal to evaluate actual decision-making?
B.
Behavioral
decision theory
1.
Cognitive
limitations on rationality
2.
Ways of
simplifying decision-making
3.
Bounded
rationality
C.
Characteristics
that influence decision-making
1.
Characteristics
of the task
2.
Characteristics
of the information
3.
Characteristics
of the decision-maker: self-interest and goal selection
D.
Methods for
studying decision-making
1.
Surveys
2.
Decision
boards
E.
Voting
correctly
1.
Definition
and measurement of a “correct” vote choice
2.
Findings:
what types of decision making models are associated with “correct” voting and
why?
F.
Comparing
Economic and Psychological Approaches (see class notes for a more complete list)
1.
Benefits of
the economic approach
a)
Normative
model
b)
Useful for
aggregating across individuals or actors
c)
Useful for
studying the interactions among different types of actors (e.g., candidates and
voters)
2.
Benefits of
the psychological approach
a)
More
realistic understanding of decision-making and the limitations and errors of
decision-makers
III. Victims of Groupthink, Irving Janis
A.
What is
groupthink?
B.
Examples of defective
decision making and “perfect failures” that have been linked to groupthink
C.
Summary chart from Janis, Ch. 8
D.
Preventing
groupthink
E.
Can
groupthink help to explain intelligence errors of WMD in Iraq?
F.
Can
groupthink help to explain the flawed decision making in the occupation of Iraq?
(“No End in Sight,” “The Fog of War”)
G.
Assessing groupthink
1.
Evaluating
the evidence for groupthink from Janis and lab studies
2.
Problems
with groupthink